According to recent research compiled from various sources, there has been a significant increase in visa denials for US F-1 student visas between 2015 and 2022. Initially, denials were mainly concentrated in Africa, South Asia, and some parts of the Middle East in 2015, but by 2022, rejections were more widespread, affecting a broader range of countries.
Globally, only Australia, China, Brazil, South Africa, and some European countries did not experience a surge in visa denials during this period.
South America witnessed a staggering rise in visa denials, with rates more than doubling over the seven-year span, increasing from 10% in 2015 to 24% in 2022. For African students, the denial rate reached a concerning 54%, including Southern Africa. This indicates that just over half of all African student visas were denied, compared to 36% of Asian students and only 9% of students from Europe.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that efforts have been made to streamline the visa process and make it more accessible for students since last year. Despite the challenges faced by competitor countries in providing accommodation, the US is considered a study destination with excess capacity. However, an upcoming undergraduate “enrolment cliff” is expected to significantly impact domestic enrolments over the next decade.
The report raises questions about whether the high visa denial rates are resulting in the US missing out on a larger number of qualified international students. The analysis estimates that between 2018 and 2022, approximately 92,051 potentially qualified African students were denied US visas.
The report outlines several recommendations to improve the visa adjudication process, including expanding dual intent for F-1 applicants, clear guidance on various aspects of visa processing, and providing transparent and clear information to students about visa denials.
The research suggests that the increase in denial rates could be attributed to factors such as increased scrutiny by consular officers of financial documents and students’ post-graduation plans, changes in consular staffing, guidance, or training, and increased global demand for visas.
Australia has also experienced a rise in visa denials, which the International Education Association of Australia (IEAA) attributes to untrained staff at consulates and increased cases of fraud. The report presents recommendations for increased training and guidance for US consulates to address similar concerns.
The analysis also raises questions about whether fluctuating denial rates between 2015 and 2022 reflect national policies and an overall negative public narrative towards international students and immigrants, especially those from specific countries and regions.
Denial rates for African countries (excluding South Africa) remained the highest throughout the eight-year period, with stakeholders expressing concerns about visa denials in Sub-Saharan Africa. Denial rates for F1 visas in Nigeria reached a new high last year, leading the report to question whether hosting international students from the region is a missed opportunity.
Similarly, Canada has seen a rise in visa rejections, particularly among applicants from Africa. Such denials not only have a personal impact on the students but also represent a failure of the process and a waste of resources for both the students and the institutions, as noted by the Canadian Bureau for International Education (CBIE).
In 2022, Southern Africa recorded a refusal rate of 16%, substantially lower than the highest refusal rate across the continent, which was 71% in Western Africa.