According to a recent study conducted by Statistics Canada, Canada’s immigration system has undergone a significant transformation due to the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). The PNP was introduced in all provinces, except for Quebec and the Yukon, between 1998 and 2009 with the goal of distributing economic immigrants more evenly across the country and meeting the specific labor force needs of each province and territory.
Under the PNP, each province and territory has the authority to design and manage its own immigration streams. These streams cater to different types of applicants, such as workers with job offers, workers without job offers, entrepreneurs, and international students.
Over the years, the PNP has expanded considerably, leading to a substantial increase in the number of provincial nominees in Canada. In 2019, there were a remarkable 68,000 provincial nominees, making the PNP the largest selection program for economic immigrants in Canada. In fact, it accounted for 35% of all new immigrants in the country, a significant jump from a mere 1% in 2000.
Notably, the Canadian government has set ambitious immigration targets for the coming years. In 2023, Canada aims to welcome 465,000 new permanent residents, and this number is projected to increase to 500,000 by 2025. The Immigration Levels Plan target for permanent residents under the PNP surpasses that of the federal government’s main economic class pathway, known as Express Entry. By 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) plans to welcome 117,500 permanent residents through the PNP.
One of the key findings of the study was the decentralization of economic immigrants across Canada, coinciding with the growth of the PNP. The distribution of new economic immigrants shifted notably between 2000 and 2019. The percentage of immigrants intending to settle in Ontario (mainly Toronto) declined from 61% to 42%, while British Columbia also saw a slight decrease from 17% to 15%. On the other hand, the Prairie provinces, particularly Manitoba and Saskatchewan, experienced significant gains, with their collective share rising from virtually zero to around 7%. Alberta and the Atlantic provinces also witnessed an increase in their share of immigrants, from 1% to 7%.
Furthermore, the study highlighted important changes in the characteristics of provincial nominees over the years. Notably, there was a substantial increase in the proportion of provincial nominees who had prior Canadian earnings before landing, indicating an influx of temporary foreign workers. The share of provincial nominees aged 20 to 54 who were previously temporary foreign workers rose from 6% in 2002 to a staggering 61% in 2019 and further increased to 72% in 2021. Research indicated that immigrants with prior Canadian work experience had better labor market outcomes, both in the short and long term, compared to those without such experience.
Another significant shift was the increase in the number of PNP immigrants with pre-immigration Canadian study experience. In 2019, 38% of new PNP immigrants had studied in Canada before immigrating, a significant rise from just 7% in 2010.
Additionally, the age of provincial nominees has seen changes, with a growing share of nominees aged 20 to 29 at the time of immigration. This age group tended to have better economic outcomes, especially in the long run. As the share of younger nominees increased, so did the share of principal applicants without spouses and dependents.
Moreover, the study noted major improvements in the official language ability of provincial nominees. In 2005, one-fifth of nominees did not speak either English or French, but by 2019, virtually all nominees had language proficiency in either English or French. Most PNP programs now require nominees to demonstrate proficiency in one of the official languages.
Finally, the source countries of economic immigrants have also seen a shift. In 2019, a significant 70% of new provincial nominees originated from three regions in Asia: Southern Asia, Eastern Asia, and Southeast Asia, indicating a notable change in the countries of origin for immigrants coming to Canada.
The Provincial Nominee Program has clearly played a crucial role in transforming Canada’s immigration landscape, promoting more balanced economic growth across the country and bringing in skilled immigrants with diverse backgrounds and experiences. As the program continues to evolve, it is expected to shape Canada’s future as a dynamic and multicultural nation.